Juan Manuel La Serna vs Franco Roncadelli

You call whether the Polymarket probability of “Franco Roncadelli” goes up or down in the 3 min after the cutoff; betting is open for 3 min. We compare the average over the last 30 s before the cutoff with the last 30 s before resolution, and winners split the pool in proportion to their stakes. If the line didn’t move, one side is empty, the market is decided or the data is unreliable, everyone gets their stake back in full, with no fee.